e-ISSN 1828-1427 |
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Rivista trimestrale di Sanità
Pubblica Veterinaria edita dall'Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale
dell'Abruzzo e del Molise G.
Caporale'
A quarterly journal devoted to veterinary public health, veterinary science and medicine published by the Istituto Zooprofilattico Sperimentale dell’Abruzzo e del Molise ‘G. Caporale’ in Teramo, Italy |
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ISSUES ONLINE
2007
- Volume 43 (3)
July-September |
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Horacio
Zendejas Martìnez, Feliciano Miliàn Suazo, José
Quintìn Cuador Gil, Gustavo Cruz Bello, Ana Marìa Anaya
Escalera, Gabriel Huitròn Màrquez & Leticia Garcìa
Casanova |
Spatial
epidemiology of bovine tuberculosis in Mexico |
629-634 |
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Summary
The purpose of this study was to use geographic
information systems (GIS) and geo-statistical methods of ordinary
kriging to predict the prevalence and distribution of bovine tuberculosis
(TB) in Jalisco, Mexico. A random sample of 2 287 herds
selected from a set of 48 766 was used for the analysis. Spatial
location of herds was obtained by either a personal global positioning
system (GPS), a database from the Instituto Nacional de Estadìstica
Geografìa e Informàtica (INEGI) or Google Earth.
Information on TB prevalence was provided by the Jalisco Commission
for the Control and Eradication of Tuberculosis (COEETB). Prediction
of TB was obtained using ordinary kriging in the geostatistical analyst
module in ArcView™8. A predicted high prevalence
area of TB matching the distribution of dairy cattle was observed.
This prediction was in agreement with the prevalence calculated on
the total 48 766 herds. Validation was performed taking
estimated values of TB prevalence at each municipality, extracted
from the kriging surface and then compared with the real prevalence
values using a correlation test, giving a value of 0.78, indicating
that GIS and kriging are reliable tools for the estimation of TB distribution
based on a random sample. This resulted in a significant savings of
resources.
Keywords
Cattle,
Geographic information system, Kriging, Mexico, Mycobacterium
bovis, Tuberculosis.
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