Summary
Geographic coordinates of selected pig farms
with confirmed African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in Ekiti, Lagos,
Ogun, Ondo and Oyo States were used to create spatial models of pig
farms and ASF outbreaks in south-western Nigeria between 1997 and
2005. The probability of ASF virus-free pigs remaining in a non-infected
state when located at various distances from ASF virus infected pigs
was estimated. Movement of infected stock was the most important means
of spreading the virus. The estimated mean duration of clinical signs
prior to death was 3.4 ± 1.1 days (mean ± standard
deviation); the mean convalescent period was 16.3 ± 2.3 days
and the mean period of survival after full recovery was 1 084 ± 145.1 days.
The continuous presence of recovered pigs in the population enables
virus spread through trade and breeding. There is an urgent need for
the implementation of an ASF eradication programme in Nigeria.
Keywords
African
swine fever, Disease, Geographic information system, Nigeria, Pattern,
Pig, Spread.
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