Summary
Risk
analysis is a tool for decision-making in the face of uncertainty.
It provides numerical estimates of the probabilities and consequences
associated with particular scenarios, and may be a valuable technique
for comparing different animal disease control strategies and for
quantifying their expected effectiveness and the uncertainties of
expected results. Within the framework of risk analysis, option evaluation
is the process of identifying, selecting and evaluating the efficacy
and feasibility of measures in order to reduce the likelihood and/or
magnitude of adverse health and economic consequences, including the
reduction of mass animal destruction. Examples on the use of option
evaluation in the framework of risk analysis in Italy are discussed
and include the design of the national bluetongue vaccination programme,
modifications in the bluetongue surveillance programme, risk mitigation
measures for animal movement in the bluetongue control programme,
and evaluation of different testing procedures for brucellosis. A
supplementary benefit in all these examples was the significant reduction
in the number of animals that had to be destroyed. It is becoming
increasingly evident that risk analysis can be a technically sound
and socially responsible way to assist decision-making among members
of industry, government and the general public. Increasingly, the
use of risk analysis supports decision-making in the fields of international
trade and health, management of natural disasters, national security,
and provides a legitimate alternative to mass animal destruction.
Keywords
Animal
disposal, Decision-making, Disease control, Italy, Option evaluation,
Risk analysis.
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