The European Environment Agency (EEA) warns of health risks arising from increased temperatures. Hundreds of millions of people could be at risk.

Rising global temperatures pose a growing threat to public health, with an expected increase in diseases such as dengue, malaria and West Nile virus. Although the debate on climate change often focuses on environmental and social impacts, including food security risks and potential migration flows, it is also important to consider the direct impact on health.

 

A recent climate risk assessment carried out by the European Environment Agency highlights how rising temperatures can favour the spread of uncommon diseases in Europe. This change creates new challenges for disease management and could put a strain on national health systems and generate new costs for countries.

 

 

 

Europe like the tropics: dengue is coming

 

The European Environment Agency warns that one of the consequences of the increase in temperatures is a potential longer transmission season of dengue, with a possible increase of 1-2 months by 2080 in south-eastern Europe. This would imply an additional risk for a population of about 150-250 million people, depending on the scenarios. These future changes would take place mainly at low altitudes, below 500 meters above sea level.

Dengue, endemic to India, Southeast Asia, and Central America, causes symptoms such as fever, headache, muscle and joint pain, and a measles-like rash. In severe cases it may require blood transfusion and can be lethal in some cases.

 

 

 

 

West Nile Fever (WND)

 

LLa Febbre del Nilo occidentale è una malattia che abbiamo imparato a conoscere negli ultimi anni in Italia, dove causa ogni anno alcune decine di casi notificati di malattia nell’uomo, soprattuto in talune aree dell’Italia settentrionale ( WND epidemiological reports in Italy Europe and in the Mediterranean basin ).

 

The European Environment Agency warns, however, that an expansion of the areas affected by West Nile Fever (WNV) is expected, especially in Western Europe. In the medium term (2050), the risk of WNV transmission is expected to increase especially in south-eastern Europe, north-eastern Italy and south-eastern France. The disease

is characterized by flu-like symptoms, such as fever, headache, fatigue and muscle pain, and in severe cases can also lead to meningitis.

 

 

 

Malaria, a European scenario

 

The increase in temperatures could make Europe a suitable territory for the spread of malaria disease. A longer transmission season (1-2 months) is expected to occur in south-eastern Europe by 2080. The European Environment Agency warns that such changes could lead to an increase in the population at risk of 200-250 million individuals.

 

 

 

Chikungunya, from Asia and Africa to Europe

 

Rising temperatures in Central Europe could favour the spread of Chikungunya disease, particularly in France and Italy, as well as in the areas surrounding the Rhine and Rhone rivers.

Chikungunya is an endemic disease in India, Indonesia and Madagascar, causing high fever and more intense muscle and joint pain than flu. The disease is transmitted by the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), now ormai widespread in many areas of Italy and the Mediterranean .

There are currently no specific treatments, but a vaccine is being developed.

 

 

 

Virus Tahyna (TAHV)

 

The Tahyna virus (TAHV) is also a potential emerging threat in Europe, particularly in areas likely to to flooding in summer.

Tahyna virus is an Orthobunyavirus and was the first arbovirus isolated from mosquitoes in Europe. It is commonly found in alluvial areas and is associated with hare as a reservoir host, and hematophagous mosquitoes, particularly Aedes vexans, as primary vectors. The disease caused by TAHV, known as "Valtice fever", in the 1960s, was initially detected in people exhibiting acute symptoms similar to influenza. Subsequently, the medical significance of TAHV has been the focus of numerous studies.

 

 

TAHV is endemic in Central Europe and probably has a much wider geographical distribution. Since it is a mosquito that develops in floodwaters, conventional urban control (i.e. targeted habitat control of containers) of mosquitoes is generally not applicable. Considering the lack of knowledge on some basic virological and ecological aspects, studies should focus on the ecological aspects, in particular on the competence of the vector and host of local species, and on methods of rapid control. It would also be useful to have a precise mapping of the main vectors, in particular Ae. vexans , thus being able to implement integrated control strategies where the vector is present.

 

The overall data suggest that the disease caused by TAHV is relatively mild, but it is also clear that it may cause neurologic symptoms in some patients, especially in children.

Because TAHV is poorly detected and rarely tested outside known areas in Central Europe, human cases are generally overlooked.

 

 

 

 

Further readings

 

Dengue, malaria, febbre del Nilo: il cambiamento climatico che fa male all’Europa

 

Ťahyňa virus—A widespread, but neglected mosquito-borne

virus in Europe

 

WND epidemiological reports in Italy, Europe and in the Mediterranean basin

 

 

 

 

 

Source: European Environment Agency: European climate risk assessment