Summary
A risk map of the between-farm spread of avian
influenza (AI) in The Netherlands was constructed during the Dutch
AI outbreak as a tool to support decision-making for control strategies.
The risk map was based on an estimated distance-dependent probability
of transmission of AI from an infectious farm to a susceptible farm.
The estimated probability function was used to derive a threshold
value for the local density of farms. In areas with local farm density
above this threshold (high risk), transmission could lead
to major outbreaks by local spread alone. In below-threshold areas
(low risk), local spread alone will not cause a propagating
epidemic. Distance-dependent probability was estimated from the data
available at the start of the 2003 AI epidemic in The Netherlands.
The resulting map predicted that two areas were at high risk. This
approach might be applicable for other livestock infections and to
other countries.
Keywords
Avian
influenza, Control, Disease, Epidemiology, Geographic information
system, Risk map, Spatial kernel, Spatial spread, The Netherlands.
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