Summary
Modelling
is a powerful tool for informing development of policies for the control
of animal diseases. By permitting the study of what if
scenarios, this tool can be used to help identify and evaluate strategies
to reduce the number of animals destroyed to eradicate diseases. To
be useful, models need to be fit for purpose and appropriately verified
and validated. For informing disease control policy, modelling will
be most useful when used before an outbreak, particularly in the areas
of retrospective analysis of previous outbreaks, contingency planning,
resource planning, risk assessments and training. Recent experience
suggests that predictive modelling during actual outbreaks needs to
be viewed and used with caution. It is important to recognise that
models are just one tool for providing scientific advice and should
not be considered in isolation from experimental studies and collection
and analysis of epidemiological data. Collaborative studies and international
cooperation can help address validation issues and improve the utility
of models for emergency disease management. One such initiative, involving
the Quadrilateral countries (Australia, Canada, New Zealand
and the United States), Ireland and the United Kingdom is discussed.
Keywords
Alternatives,
Animal disposal, Control policy, Livestock disease, Model, Simulation,
Stamping out.
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