Summary
The
author describes how foresight methods can provide a provocative approach
to some of the key challenges faced by the world of animal health
and public veterinary practices while supporting the safety and security
of the food system and public health in general. Being provocative
is important because the future may be very unfamiliar and demands
an approach of critical thinking, which can best be activated by having
to consider the prospective reality of one or more substantially different
policy operational environments. The factors that are shaping our
future may also be quite disruptive (for example from 1989 to 1994
when the Cold War abruptly ended, the Soviet Union dissolved and the
internet was born). Consequently it is essential that any forward
preparedness efforts explore a range of plausible options and not
immediately discount those that may in todays terms appear unlikely.
The author reviews the methods through to the point where scenario
parameters are defined, and then switches to observations about how
the process can influence and provoke policy formulation. The results
of the foresight and scenarios employment are described by Willis
in another paper in this volume.
Keywords
Animal
disposal, Animal futures, Animal health, Crisis management, Foresight,
Pandemics, Preparedness, Public health, Science, Scenarios, Stamping
out, Strategic planning, Technology foresight.
|