Summary
The
goal of the International workshop on animal disposal alternatives
(IWADA) has always been to minimise, to the greatest extent possible,
the destruction of animals due to incursions of foreign animal disease.
Prevention has always been considered the best mechanism to facilitate
this goal. The authors introduce the concept of anticipation as a
fifth pillar of emergency disease management in addition to the other
pillars: prevention, preparedness, response and recovery. The objectives
are as follows: to broaden thinking on possible future adverse events
and threats, including, but not limited to, disease outbreaks; to
identify possible adverse event indicators; and, to enhance prevention
and preparedness activities. The role of anticipation is to detect
and analyse disease or animal health event indicators. These indicators
can thus be used to anticipate possible adverse events in the future.
Anticipation must be strongly linked to prevention and preparedness.
The approaches to anticipation include surveillance activities, foresight
and forecasting, networks and multi-disciplinary teams, framework
approaches, computer-based and modelling approaches and intelligence
approaches. Practitioners of anticipation will be required to accept
uncertainty and incomplete data and must appreciate that although
the future cannot be predicted, anticipation of plausible futures
is valuable for strategic planning.
Keywords
Animal
diseases, Anticipation, Approaches, Indicators, Preparedness, Prevention.
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